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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  69.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE  20SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  69.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  69.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.7N  68.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.6N  66.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N  64.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  20SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.2N  61.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.0N  57.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 34.5N  54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  69.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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