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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  67.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  67.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  67.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.6N  68.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.1N  68.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.3N  68.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.6N  66.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 35.5N  60.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 37.0N  54.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N  48.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N  67.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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