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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  66.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  66.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  66.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.4N  67.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.7N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.6N  66.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  70SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 36.8N  60.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 40.8N  54.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N  66.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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