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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  65.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  65.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N  66.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N  67.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 35.5N  61.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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