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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  65.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  65.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  64.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N  66.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N  66.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N  67.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.8N  67.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.6N  66.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N  57.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  65.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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