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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  64.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  64.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  63.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N  65.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N  66.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N  67.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N  67.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.8N  66.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N  63.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 36.7N  60.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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