Hurricane JERRY

ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  62.8W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  62.8W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  62.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N  64.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N  66.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N  68.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.3N  68.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.9N  68.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.8N  66.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 34.5N  62.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  62.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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