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HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  57.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  57.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  56.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N  59.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N  64.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N  66.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N  68.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N  67.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 35.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  57.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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