ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  51.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  51.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  51.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N  53.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N  56.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N  59.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N  62.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.4N  67.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N  51.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN