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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. MAARTEN.

METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND
ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  FURTHER WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  50.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  50.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  49.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N  52.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N  55.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N  61.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N  70.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  50.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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