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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  45.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  45.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  45.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N  46.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N  48.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.9N  51.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N  54.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N  60.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N  66.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  45.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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