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Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Conventional satellite imagery and a series of recent microwave
images show that Jerry's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate.
Diminishing deep convection is now confined to the north portion of
the cyclone.  A blend of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS respectively,
support decreasing the initial intensity to 50 kt.

Strong vertical shear and an intruding dry, stable thermodynamic
atmosphere associated with a high amplitude mid- to upper-level
trough moving off of the east coast of the U.S. is finally taking
its toll on Jerry.  Weakening has begun, and the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale
deterministic models show the aforementioned inhibiting environment
persisting through the entire 5 day period.  Consequently, further
weakening is expected, and Jerry should degenerate into a remnant
low in 4 days, with dissipation occuring over the weekend, and this
scenario is consistent with global model forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt.  Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge through most of today, then turn northeastward later
tonight within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by
the previously mentioned approaching trough.  Around mid-period,
Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer
mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the
peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of
the cyclone.  The NHC track forecast is somewhat slower beyond the
24 hour period than the previous advisory to align more with the
reliable TVCA multi-model consensus.

Wind radii were adjusted based on 0150 UTC MetOp scatterometer
data, and the forecast wind radii for the 24 and 36 hour periods
are based on the global and regional model RVCN consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 29.8N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 30.6N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 31.7N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 32.7N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 33.6N  61.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 34.9N  56.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z 35.0N  54.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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