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Tropical Storm JERRY


Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Jerry has been relatively steady state this evening.  Microwave
data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near
the western edge of the main area of deep convection due to strong
westerly wind shear.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated
the storm a few hours ago, and a combination of the flight-level
wind and dropsonde data suggest that the initial intensity is still
55 kt.  The minimum pressure measured by the aircraft has also been
steady at 993 mb.  The initial wind radii have been modified
slightly based on the aircraft data and a recent ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm is currently located in a region of strong
westerly wind shear to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level
trough.  The shear is expected to remain relatively strong during
the next several days, which in combination with drier air and
decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause gradual
weakening during the next several days.  The NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous one to become in better
agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast.  A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is predicted after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  There remains a fair amount of spread in
the model tracks, especially from days 3 to 5.  The NHC track
forecast is a tad to the right of the previous one, leaning toward
the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda.  Tropical-
storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday.

2. Large swells are expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.


INIT  23/0300Z 27.4N  67.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 28.4N  67.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 29.8N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 31.2N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 32.4N  67.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 35.0N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 37.3N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 38.5N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi