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Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an
environment of moderate westerly vertical shear.  The low-level
center is near the western side of the main area of deep
convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather
ragged-looking.  Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity
remains near 55 kt.  The dynamical guidance shows that the shear
will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period,
so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the
next couple of days followed by gradual weakening.  This is a
little above the intensity model consensus.

The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt.  Jerry
continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  In a
couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S.
coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to
northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the
latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move
east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level
westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the
previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model
consensus, HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may
have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of
Jerry.  A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 26.7N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 27.7N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 29.0N  67.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 30.4N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 31.8N  67.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 34.4N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 38.5N  50.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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