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Tropical Storm JERRY


Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but
there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any
significant change in structure.  The center still appears
to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is
consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong
northwesterly shear.  The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit
above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the
center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit
stronger than shown in that pass.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC.

Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength
of Jerry.  While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any
relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long,
and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude
trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening.
Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period,
similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at
long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical

The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt.
The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast
track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of
the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will
steer the storm more to the left.  Jerry should then accelelerate
to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the
forecast track is a little faster at long range.

Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.


INIT  22/0900Z 25.0N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 26.3N  67.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 27.6N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 29.0N  68.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 30.4N  68.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 34.0N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 39.0N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 43.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

Forecaster Blake