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Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular
CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant.
Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there
is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system
just below the outflow layer.  An upper-level cyclone is located a
few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by
synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV
jet.  However, the global models suggest that this feature should
remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its
shearing influence will be minimal in the short term.  The current
intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB.  Since the environment is likely to be modestly
conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for
the next 24 hours.  Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some
increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of
Jerry's intensity.  Later in the forecast period, the global models
predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is
likely.  The official intensity forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus.

The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13
kt.  There are no important changes to the track forecast from the
previous advisory.  Jerry should move along the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days.  In
3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest,
north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the
ridge near 70-75W longitude.  The official track forecast is close
to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.4N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 16.2N  53.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 18.5N  59.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 19.7N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 22.4N  67.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 25.7N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 29.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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