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Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better
organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.
While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall
satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches
almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.
Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or
two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.
While this type of environment could support even more
strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air
around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification
rates for now. This forecast leans heavier on the regional
hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker
cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.
Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and
the shear could become somewhat strong by next week. While little
change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't
happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the
environmental factors become more clear.
The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.
1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves
near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to
determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the
progress of this system. Watches could be issued for a portion of
this area this afternoon or evening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.4N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 20.5N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 23.3N 69.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH