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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today.  Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment.  These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.4N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 14.1N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 15.0N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.9N  51.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.9N  54.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 18.9N  60.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 20.9N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 23.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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