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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the disturbance was
estimated near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system
is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed
through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is
anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas
today, and along or over the east coast of Florida Saturday and
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today or Saturday. An Air Force plane is
enroute to investigate the disturbance.
Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form later today or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:
The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.
STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.