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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 74.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coast
of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near
the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.8 North, longitude
74.5 West.  The disturbance has been meandering over the
southeastern Bahamas. However, the system is expected to move slowly
northwestward on Friday, and continue that motion through the
weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or
over the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7
inches.

The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern
Georgia...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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