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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  74.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   1 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  74.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  74.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.8N  76.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.6N  78.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.0N  79.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N  80.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 32.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N  74.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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