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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019

Gabrielle's extratropical transition is well underway. Deep
convection is now confined to an area near and to the north of
the center, and a baroclinic zone is already impinging upon the
circulation.  The initial wind speed has been maintained at
45 kt, which was in agreement with earlier scatterometer data.  The
cyclone should become fully extratropical later this morning, and
the global models indicate that gradual weakening will occur after
that time.  As a result, the NHC forecast shows steady weakening
after 12 hours, and calls for the system to dissipate in a little
more than 2 days as it approaches the northern British Isles.

Gabrielle has become embedded within the mid-latitude flow and is
now moving northeastward at 22 kt. The cyclone is forecast to
continue accelerating northeastward during the next day or so until
dissipation occurs.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the tightly
cluster model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 43.4N  40.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 45.2N  36.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  11/0600Z 48.3N  29.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  11/1800Z 51.8N  21.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/0600Z 55.0N  11.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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