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Tropical Storm GABRIELLE


Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

Gabrielle is barely holding on to its status as a tropical cyclone.
The closest deep convection is now displaced over 100 n mi to the
north of the tropical storm's low-level center, and Dvorak
intensity estimates have continued to decrease quickly. Given the
lack of deep convection where the strongest winds were observed in
earlier ASCAT data (not to mention near the cyclone's center), some
weakening has likely occurred since then.  The intensity is
therefore set at 40 kt for this advisory.

Very high shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, and it
is unlikely that Gabrielle will become any better organized during
that period. In fact, it can not be ruled out that the cyclone could
briefly become post-tropical due to a lack of deep convection during
that period. However, the shear should decrease in a couple of days,
and the cyclone will then be moving over very warm SSTs. Deep
convection will likely increase over the weekend and some
strengthening is still forecast thereafter. Most of the dynamical
models even suggest that Gabrielle could become a hurricane before
it starts to become extratropical sometime next week. The
statistical guidance isn't nearly as bullish, so the NHC forecast
continues to show only slow strengthening through the end of the
forecast period.

The tropical storm has slowed in the short term, but is forecast by
all of the guidance to accelerate northwestward overnight. The
models remain in very good agreement that Gabrielle will then
continue northwestward for a few days before recurving early next
week ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough. Once again, little
change has been made to the NHC track forecast which is very close
to the multi-model consensus at every forecast hour.


INIT  05/2100Z 23.4N  35.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 24.6N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 26.6N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 28.5N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 30.2N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 33.3N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 37.5N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 43.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

Forecaster Zelinsky