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Tropical Storm GABRIELLE


Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface
winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery
since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection,
albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center
noted in the scatterometer data.  Based on these wind data and a
satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle,
the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

The initial motion is 310/09 kt.  The initial position was adjusted
slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the
aforementioned scatterometer data.  This has resulted in the new
forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous
advisory track at all forecast times.  For the next 5 days,
Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W
longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the
tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain
in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C,
and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent.  As
a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model.


INIT  04/0900Z 19.6N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 20.3N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 21.1N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 22.1N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 23.4N  37.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 27.5N  41.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 31.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 35.5N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

Forecaster Stewart