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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface
winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery
since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection,
albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center
noted in the scatterometer data.  Based on these wind data and a
satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle,
the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

The initial motion is 310/09 kt.  The initial position was adjusted
slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the
aforementioned scatterometer data.  This has resulted in the new
forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous
advisory track at all forecast times.  For the next 5 days,
Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W
longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the
tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain
in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C,
and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent.  As
a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 19.6N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 20.3N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 21.1N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 22.1N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 23.4N  37.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 27.5N  41.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 31.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 35.5N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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