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Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 97.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 1005 MI...160 KM NNE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 97.2 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west
or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of Fernand is
forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico later today or
this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected before the center
moves onshore.  Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and
Fernand should dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the warning area today.  Squalls with gusts to tropical storm force
are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower
Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to
12 inches with isolated 18 inches, highest along the immediate Gulf
Coast and in the Sierra Madre Oriental.  This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 3 to 6 inches.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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