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Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...FERNAND EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 96.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 96.7 West. Fernand is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a track toward the
west-northwest is anticipated today and on Thursday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the
northeastern coast of Mexico by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight increase in intensity is possible before
landfall. Once inland, weakening is expected, and Fernand should
dissipate in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center mainly to the west of the center. Satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are
are just offshore the coast of northeastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are already very near the coast
within the warning area and will continue to increase today, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to
tropical storm force are likely north of the warning area along
portions of the lower Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: Central Tamaulipas and southern Nuevo Leon: 6 to
12 inches, isolated 15 inches in the Sierra Madre Oriental.
Northern Tamaulipas and northern Nuevo Leon: 3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN