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Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane investigated Fernand this evening and
found that the circulation of the cyclone was better organized
with a central pressure of 1000 mb. The plane also measured a peak
flight level wind of 51 kt, and numerous SFMR observations of around
45 kt.  This is the intensity assigned to Fernand in this advisory.
These strong winds were confined to the western semicircle of the
storm and very close to the coast of Mexico.  The satellite
presentation has also improved during the past few hours, but due to
shear, the center is still located on the southeastern edge of an
area of very deep convection.

Fernand does not have to much room for strengthening since its
circulation will soon be interacting with the high terrain of
eastern Mexico.  However, in the next 12 to 18 hours before the
center moves inland, some intensification could occur as indicated
in the official NHC forecast.  Once Fernand moves inland, it will
weaken rapidly.

The cyclone is moving slowly westward or 270 degrees at 3 kt.
Fernand is trapped south of a strong mid-level ridge over the
southwestern United States, and this pattern should slowly steer the
cyclone on a west-to west-northwest track for the next day or so.
This track is consistent with the previous one, and it is consistent
with the solution of the global models.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 23.2N  96.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 23.5N  97.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 24.0N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1200Z 24.5N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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