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Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, new
convection has developed around the center of Erin's circulation
over the past couple of hours, giving it a little more time
as a tropical cyclone. The current objective Dvorak intensity
estimate from TAFB is 30 kt, and so that will remain the initial
intensity for this advisory.

Westerly shear should prevent any intensification of Erin while it
remains a tropical cyclone tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone should
merge with a frontal system while it undergoes extratropical
transition. Thereafter, the merged system could strengthen due to
baroclinic processes.

Erin has accelerated and is now moving at 025/18 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to move even faster to the northeast on Thursday and
continue northeastward until it merges with another extratropical
low by late Friday.  The updated NHC track forecast is changed
little from the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 35.6N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 38.0N  70.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/0000Z 42.4N  66.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1200Z 47.3N  62.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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