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Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Strong northerly shear has continued to take a toll on Erin, with
the system becoming a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is supported by earlier
ASCAT data and observations from buoy 41001.  Northwesterly shear
should continue to prevent strengthening while the system remains
over warm waters tonight.  If deep convection does not return soon,
the system is likely to become post-tropical.  Erin or its remnants
should merge with a frontal system on Thursday and it could
strengthen due to baroclinic processes after that time.  The new NHC
intensity forecast calls for the system to become an extratropical
gale in 24 hours, and is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

Erin has turned northward or 360/11 kt.  The cyclone should turn
north-northeastward tonight ahead of an approaching mid-latitude
trough.  After that time, it is expected to accelerate
north-northeastward until it merges with another extratropical
low by late Friday.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 34.5N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 36.8N  71.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 40.7N  68.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/0600Z 45.3N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1800Z 50.5N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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