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Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

Over the past several hours, the deep convection associated with the
cyclone has been developing progressively closer to the center of
circulation. And, at the time of this advisory the convection is now
covering a portion of the previously exposed low-level center. A
late morning scatterometer pass showed winds just over 30 kt over
the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Since that time, the improved
convective pattern has resulted in an increase in the subjective
satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, indicating an initial
intensity of 35 kt.

Erin is still undergoing northerly shear, but possibly a little less
now than it had been battling for the past couple of days.  Little
change in environmental conditions are expected over the next 36
hours, so some slight strengthening could occur during that time.
After 24 hours, Erin will begin to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough over the northeastern United States. This should
cause the storm to gradually acquire extratropical characteristics,
and by 48 hours Erin is expected to have completed extratropical
transition.

Erin continues to meander, with an initial motion of 270/3 kt. The
approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to induce a northward
motion of Erin tonight and then accelerate the storm to the
northeast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model guidance is in
good agreement on this scenario and the official forecast is close
to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. On this
track, Erin will remain well offshore of the United States coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 31.9N  72.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 33.1N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 36.0N  71.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 39.4N  68.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 43.7N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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