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Tropical Depression SIX (Text)


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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

The satellite presentation during the past several hours shows some
curved banding improvement associated with the cyclone, particularly
in the southeast quadrant, however, the circulation is still poorly
defined. In fact, imagery reveals multiple swirls rotating about a
large circulation.  No changes to the subjective satellite intensity
estimates, from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt for this advisory.

The 25-30 kt of westerly shear, indicated by the UW-CIMSS shear
product, is forecast to decrease somewhat around mid-period
while the system remains over warm oceanic sea surface
temperatures.  This, along with some baroclinic forcing in response
to an approaching mid-latitude trough from the northeast United
States, should allow for the cyclone to modestly strengthening.  The
Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, and the global
models, including the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery, now indicate
the cyclone completing an extratropical transition in 3 days, and
the official forecast is adjusted accordingly.  Afterward, as
extratropical low quickly approaches eastern Canada, the large-scale
models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by a larger baroclinic
system embedded in the westerlies, and this is also indicated in the
official forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be a generally southward drift,
or  125/2 kt, within weak low to mid-level steering flow residing
between the Bermuda high to the east and a mid-level ridge over the
mid-Atlantic states.  The depression is forecast to move little
through today as it remains in the aforementioned weak steering
current.  Afterward, a mid-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to
move toward the northeastern United States on Wednesday, and should
induce a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed,
away from the eastern seaboard.  Only a slight adjustment to the
left of the previous forecast was made to align more with the
reliable NOAA HCCA and TVCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 31.0N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 31.4N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 32.5N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 34.1N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 36.7N  69.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 42.9N  63.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0600Z 49.8N  55.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Oct-2019 12:09:17 UTC