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Tropical Storm DORIAN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  32(36)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  35(41)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  34(41)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  27(34)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  33(51)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)  14(42)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   7(27)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)   2(30)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  41(51)   1(52)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   1(21)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)  12(44)   X(44)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  49(55)   1(56)   X(56)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   1(21)   X(21)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  20(38)   1(39)   X(39)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   2( 2)  62(64)   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
PONCE PR       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   1( 1)  56(57)   9(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   1( 1)  25(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  1   8( 9)  26(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1   5( 6)   7(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  1  20(21)   8(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABA           34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34 71  22(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
AVES           50 12  24(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
AVES           64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:14 UTC