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Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS DORIAN IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 70.3 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue
into early next week.  On this track, the core of Dorian should move
over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas
today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that with maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and
approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure recently estimated from an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night
or Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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