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Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 69.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 69.4 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today.  A slower west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through
the weekend.  On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic
well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach
the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of
the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175
km/h) with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later
today.  Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the
Florida peninsula through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday
night or Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the
next few days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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