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Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Martinique.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft and the Martinique radar indicate that the
center of Tropical Storm Dorian has reformed farther north near
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 62.0 West.  Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during
the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and
move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.  On Thursday night and Friday,
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos
and southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close
to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are diminishing over the Lesser
Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions
of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the
Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase
along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday
and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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