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Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN MOVES ACROSS ST. LUCIA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 61.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by surface observations and Martinique radar data near
latitude 14.0 North, longitude 61.2 West. Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during
the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and
move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian
is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to
Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:
Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6
inches.
Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially
where totals exceed 4 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these
conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by
late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the
Lesser Antilles today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next
several hours.  Swells are expected to increase along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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