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Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 60.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the
progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.2 North, longitude 60.2 West.  Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours.  Dorian is
forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move
near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of
Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent.  Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across
the northern Windward Islands.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are
possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area and these conditions are expected to
continue during the next several hours.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the
Lesser Antilles through the morning, and in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next
several hours.  Swells are expected to increase along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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