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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 66.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of
Massachusetts, as well as for Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United
States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 66.0 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and a general
motion toward the northeast is expected to continue through Sunday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
move across central or eastern Nova Scotia this afternoon or this
evening, pass near or over Prince Edward Island tonight, and then
move near or over portions of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is expected to become a hurricane-force
post-tropical cyclone as it moves across eastern Canada tonight or
on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).  Yarmouth, Nova Scotia recently reported sustained
winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).
NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum pressure of 955.3 mb (28.21
inches) as the center passed just to the west about an hour ago.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread into the warning area
in Maine by this afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight.  Tropical
Storm conditions are currently spreading into southwestern Nova
Scotia, and these conditions are expected elsewhere in the Tropical
Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through tonight:

Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches.
Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches.
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF:  Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days.  Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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