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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HARD ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 74.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.  Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Brennan

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