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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 61.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Isla Saona to Samana.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for St. Vincent and
the Grenadines.  The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued
for Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
and the Martinique radar near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 61.8
West.  Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern
and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing
near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern
Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on
Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is
forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern
Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close
to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these
conditions are expected to subside later today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican
Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several
hours.  Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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