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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...DORIAN JUST PASSED VERY NEAR TO BARBADOS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 59.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Hurricane Watch
for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the
progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required
early Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.2 North, longitude 59.7 West.  Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to move near or over the Windward Islands tonight and
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  Dorian is forecast
to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over
eastern Hispaniola, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian
is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and
eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.  A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently
reported in Barbados.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados.  Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands.  Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely in the tropical storm
warning area through Tuesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles
through Tuesday morning, and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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