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Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER
TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 58.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the
progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required
tonight or Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by satellite and Martinique radar near latitude 12.7 North,
longitude 58.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move near
the Windward Islands this evening and tonight and move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is forecast to pass near or
south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern
Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane
when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that Dorian remains a
compact tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados.  Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands.  Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Watch area.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser
Antilles tonight or Tuesday and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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