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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADJUSTED THE WARNINGS FOR NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO EASTWARD AROUND NOVA SCOTIA TO
AVONPORT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FROM TIDNISH TO
BRULE AND FROM FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO AVONPORT

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO.
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO INDIAN
HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PARSON'S POND TO TRITON
* INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONE'S COVE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N  70.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 400SE 300SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N  70.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  71.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.8N  66.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N  63.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N  59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...340NE 280SE 240SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.0N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 56.0N  41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N  70.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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