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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING SOUTH OF SURF CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NC TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC.
* FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N  76.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 140SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N  76.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  76.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N  74.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.8N  69.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N  65.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.7N  61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N  52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 58.0N  36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N  76.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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