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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...AND FOR MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH OF EDISTO
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER
INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.  FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  78.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 130SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  78.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  78.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.2N  77.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N  74.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N  70.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N  65.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N  57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 56.0N  45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N  78.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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