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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE
BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  79.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 250SE 150SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  79.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  79.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N  78.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.2N  77.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.1N  74.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.3N  70.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.0N  61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N  52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 58.0N  38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N  79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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