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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF
CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO DUCK...NORTH
CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND THE NEUSE
AND PAMLICO RIVERS.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO EDISTO
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA AND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF JUPITER
INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SEBASTIAN INLET FL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  78.7W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 100SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  78.7W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  78.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N  79.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N  80.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.6N  79.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.1N  74.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N  78.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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