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Hurricane DORIAN


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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA
BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO SOUTH OF LANTANA FL
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FL TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  78.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  78.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  78.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N  78.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.5N  79.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.9N  79.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N  79.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.3N  76.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 39.0N  69.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N  78.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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