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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND ELEUTHERA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR ANDROS ISLAND...IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
* JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  78.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   1 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  916 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  78.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  78.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.7N  78.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.9N  79.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.6N  79.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N  80.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N  79.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N  78.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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